Talk:Triple Axel (move)

Probability

I'm not a statistician, but can someone please explain to me the math behind the accuracy of triple axel?

I would assume that 3 hits would be 0.729, 2 hits would be 0.243, 1 hit would be 0.027, and 0 hits would be 0.001.

I listed out all the probabilities (h means hit, m means miss).

hhh = 0.729

hhm = 0.081, hmh = 0.081, mhh = 0.081,

hmm = 0.009, mhm = 0.009, mmh = 0.009,

mmm = 0.001

And yes, they do add up to 1.

If this is true, the average base power would be:

0.729*120 + 0.243*60 + 0.027*20 + 0.001*0 = 102.6 - unsigned comment from Fufulord (talk • contribs)

What you're missing is that, if the first hit fails, they all fail, meaning the p(0) = .1, p(1) = .09, and p(2) = .081. Thus the average is .729*120 + .081*60 + .09*20 +.1*0 = 94.14 Mr. Daikon (talk) 05:25, 23 June 2020 (UTC)

Okay thanks, maybe that should be included in the article Fufulord (talk) 05:28, 23 June 2020 (UTC)

The article already mentions that "If any strike fails, the move ends." What else do you think should be added? --SnorlaxMonster 09:44, 23 June 2020 (UTC)